Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial assets returns exhibit fat tails (leptokurtosis) and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. This paper considers the ability of the asymmetric GARCHtype models to capture the stylized features of volatility in USD/KZT exchange rate returns. Therefore, the half-life parameter of the USD/KZT returns series were calculated for three sub-periods. The results revealed that the half-life was 6 days, 16 days and 12 days for 1st sub-period, 2nd sub-period and 3rd sub-period respectively. According to the results, in the presence of asymmetric responses to innovations in the Kazakhstan foreign exchange market, the EGARCH (1.1)-GED model which accommodates the kurtosis of financial time series is preferred. Also, these results show that the USD/KZT exchange rate returns have strong mean reversion and short half-life.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan have gained their independence. The characteristics of the region, some of which are the Turkish-Islamic identity, common history, common culture, and shared state borders, interconnect the fates of these newly independent states. Therefore, the cooperation and integration of these states are essential for the security of the region. However, this cooperation and integration are obstructed due to some policies implemented during the Soviet Union period and the policies of the two great powers close to the region. In this study, which aims to analyze Central Asia within the framework of “Regional Security Complex Theory” and its analysis units, we try to evaluate the intra-regional problems and the policies of Russia and China through the philosophicalideological base, economic, political, and security units.
Keywords: Central Asia, Russia, China, Regional Security Complex [HTML]
The paper reviews and analyzes the production potential and basic trade indicators of the Eurasian Economic Union countries. It shows that the region had a difficult transition, after which a role of agricultural sector decreased substantially. It also demonstrates that countries pursue different strategies to support agricultural and food production. Production patterns of the countries affected trade in agricultural and food products. The only country in the union, which has positive trade balance in agricultural and food products, is Belarus. The paper pays special attention to challenges of the Eurasian agriculture on the example of the effects of pandemic. The pandemic has a negative impact on agricultural production and trade as many producers experienced significant losses due to lockdowns, border closures, disruption of labor markets and export restrictions and bans. To help overcome future shocks, the paper provides policy recommendations based on regional cooperation and policy coordination.
Keywords: The Eurasian Economic Union, agriculture, food security, international trade, agricultural policy [HTML]
Central Asia (CA) has a large geostrategic and geopolitical importance due to its central location in Eurasia and its rich energy resources in the Caspian region. After the collapse of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), establishment of new independent states in the region increased the interest of great powers in the region. The influence of the Russian Federation (RF) in the region has continued after the collapse of the USSR as it was during the time of the USSR. After the collapse of the USSR, superpowers like United States of America (USA) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) began to establish their presence in the region in order to balance the Russian policy in the region. The interest of the USA in CA countries in early years of independence was seen in areas of economic aid and energy, while the influence of Russia has continued intensively in the political, economic, energy, and military fields. In this context, the USA and the Russia have entered into a competition to gain more military influence and space in the region. This study analyzes the effectiveness of the strategies applied by the US and Russia towards Central Asia within the framework of geopolitical theory.
Keywords: Geopolitical theory, the US policy toward Central Asia, Russia’s Central Asia policy, energy policy, military bases [HTML]
In this study, the political opinions and active political life of Mehmet Akif Ersoy and his contribution to the political communication of the War of Independence are explored. The people and incidents having influence on shaping the political approach of Mehmet Akif Ersoy, the content of his Islamic thought and politics, his liberal approach, his opposition to the Abdulhamid II Administration, his relations with the Committee of Union and Progress and his contribution to intellectual and cultural life in the studies after the Second Constitutional Monarchy are emphasized. In addition, his role and position in the War of Independence are also discussed. This article also reviews a rich literature, many studies and resources about the life of Mehmet Akif are used and cited; moreover, as a first-hand document the official records of the First Period of the Turkish Grand National Assembly and personal files of Mehmet Akif Ersoy in the Grand National Assembly are examined.
Keywords: Mehmet Akif Ersoy, Islamic Poet, Political Communication, Political Life, War of Independence [HTML]