ÖZET
This paper examines the economic implications of Uzbekistan’s demographic transition by analyzing how population age structures, human capital, and regional disparities shape growth. Using municipal-level data from Uz.Stat (2000–2023) and econometric methods, it identifies the prime working-age group (35–49) as the main driver of productivity, while younger (0–19) and older (65+) cohorts create dependency pressures. Urban-rural divides further mediate these effects, with population density both constraining and enhancing economic performance. Educational attainment emerges as a crucial factor mitigating demographic pressures and supporting growth. The study highlights the need for targeted policies to harness Uzbekistan’s demographic dividend and manage aging challenges through investments in education, healthcare, and labor market reforms particularly for women and older workers offering insights for fostering inclusive and sustainable development across emerging economies.
ABSTRACT
This paper examines the economic implications of Uzbekistan’s demographic transition by analyzing how population age structures, human capital, and regional disparities shape growth. Using municipal-level data from Uz.Stat (2000–2023) and econometric methods, it identifies the prime working-age group (35–49) as the main driver of productivity, while younger (0–19) and older (65+) cohorts create dependency pressures. Urban-rural divides further mediate these effects, with population density both constraining and enhancing economic performance. Educational attainment emerges as a crucial factor mitigating demographic pressures and supporting growth. The study highlights the need for targeted policies to harness Uzbekistan’s demographic dividend and manage aging challenges through investments in education, healthcare, and labor market reforms particularly for women and older workers offering insights for fostering inclusive and sustainable development across emerging economies.
ANAHTAR KELİMELER: Demographic dividend, Population aging, Uzbekistan, Economic growth, Regional analysis
KEYWORDS: Demographic dividend, Population aging, Uzbekistan, Economic growth, Regional analysis